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Scientists are predicting an undersea volcano known as Axial Seamount, located just off the coast of Oregon, will erupt in 2025. Axial is the most active submarine volcano in the northeast Pacific Ocean and the most thoroughly instrumented undersea volcano in the world.
Predicting when volcanoes will erupt is a very inexact science. In fact, it is very hard to do. That is why so much attention has been paid to Axial Seamount.
The first recording equipment to monitor Axial Seamount was installed in 1997. It would go on to be the site of the world’s first underwater volcano observatory.
Since that first monitoring equipment was installed, scientists been able to study eruptions at Axial in 1997, 2011, and 2015. It is that 2015 eruption that now has scientists predicting another volcanic eruption in 2025.
Science News reports that in November Axial’s surface ballooned to nearly the same height as it had before it erupted in 2015.
In October, Axial researchers wrote, “The rate of inflation at Axial has been steady for the last six months and the rate of seismicity has moderated. An eruption does not seem imminent, but it can’t do this forever… So, no change in our latest eruption forecast of ‘before the end of 2025.’”
If it does, it will be a field day for volcanologists such as Rebecca Carey. Detecting early warning signals offers the “exciting opportunity to deploy remotely operated vehicles to catch the eruption occurring,” says Carey, of the University of Tasmania in Sandy Bay, Australia. In addition to volcanology insights, she says, catching the eruption in the act would offer a glimpse into its effects on hydrothermal systems and biological communities nearby.
Oregon State geophysicist William Chadwick, lead author of a research paper published this month, stated, “Based on the current trends, and the assumption that Axial will be primed to erupt when it reaches the 2015 inflation threshold, our current eruption forecast window is between now (July 2024) and the end of 2025. If the rate of inflation and seismicity continue to increase, an eruption may be likely before the end of 2024.”
If they are correct, which is not guaranteed because as Chadwick says, “forecasting is difficult,” an Axial Seamount eruption shouldn’t pose any hazards to humans. But it isn’t completely out of the question, for the same reason.