SAG Throws Late Inning Curveball Into Oscar Race

Well. it ain’t over until the fat lady sings.

Not sure who said that, or just who will be singing after this long and winding road to Oscar is over, but we will have to wait another week after a later-than-ever SAG Awards ceremony just said ‘not so fast, Anora’.

A week after losing to BAFTA as Best Film to Conclave, Sean Baker’s DGA, PGA, WGA, Critics Choice, and Palme d’Or winning comedy lost again in the sometimes Oscar predictive Screen Actors Guild Outstanding Cast Award race to – you guessed it – Conclave, winning the same award it took at Critics Choice two weeks ago and a movie that, with Pope Francis in critical condition, is becoming more timely by the day.

This would be equivalent to a nuclear bomb going off if only SAG had been earlier, or Oscar had extended its voting period, but the fact is Academy Award ballots are already in the hands of PriceWaterhouse accountants and the actual outcome of Sunday night’s SAG awards will have zero effect. Plus it comes a day after Anora win three Indie Spirits including Best Film to keep its roll going. Whatever dye is cast has already been cast, but the Academy’s preferential balloting system for only the Best Picture category (as opposed to their other 22 categories which are straight up and down votes), looks for a consensus winner, a well-liked contender, and all along Conclave is the one movie that seems to have few detractors. Could it sneak in? In a season where Emilia Perez started off as the favorite with a near-record 13 nominations before controversy over star Karla Sofia Gascon’s past social media footprint stalled its momentum and then DGA, PGA and WGA wins for Anora suddenly made that NEON movie seem inevitable, this new twist presents a reasonable scenario of an upset by Conclave which was hampered by a snub by the directors branch for director Edward Berger. However that egregious oversight might have been fatal in the past, but more recent history with Argo, Green Book, and CODA conclusively prove it is not fatal . Each of those films put together Best Picture wins with Screenplay and one other win without having a Best Director nomination. Conclave could get elected with an Argo-style victory of Picture, Screenplay, and Editing, thus the latter two categories will be the ones to watch on Oscar night if this scenario is to even become a possibility.

SAG, with last week’s BAFTA wins, has given new life to Conclave distributor Focus Features’ hopes for its first-ever Best Picture win (even if the specialty distributor owned by Universal has its hands also in the fates of The Brutualist and Anora). The complete wipeout for Anora from the 160,000-strong actors union is troubling as the Academy’s actors branch is by far the largest among Oscar voters. At the very least it has led to what is turning out to possibly be an uncomforable night at the Dolby for all these competitors. Sometimes it is fun to just go knowing you are going to lose. This may be a night where any outcome is not just possible, but plausible.

My own unscientific surveys among Oscar voters indicate a race all over the map, the younger contingent more Anora friendly, the older voters more inclined toward Conclave. And then there is The Brutalist which seems to have equal defenders and detractors, which on a preferential ballot is a little dicey. Certainly with its guilds sweep just as Oscar balloting was beginning gives the big ‘Mo to Anora when it counted most so it would seem to be still the prohibitive favorite, but nothing is certain at this point and anyone who tells you that does not know what they are talking about. Just ask producers of Brokeback Mountain which sailed into the Oscars with PGA, DGA, and WGA wins only to lose to Crash. And just ask producers of Shakespeare In Love (you can reach Harvey at Rikers) about the value of coming into Oscar night with only a SAG cast and BAFTA Best Film win to its name. There are precedents, negative and positive.

At the very least the Motion Picture Academy has to be happy about having a real horse race on their hands going into the final week. Suspense drives interest and a predictable outcome is not good for ratings. Academy President Janet Yang was smiling Sunday night at the Shrine Auditorium looking forward to the Oscar showdown just seven days away- and the final word of this endless season.

Some categories of course are more predictable and you can bet the farm on A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin ( who finally turned up to accept at SAG) for Best Supporting Actor, and Emilia Perez’s Zoe Saldana for Best Supporting Actress. They have not slipped yet and SAG just cemented their fates next Sunday. However, as in Best Picture, the lead acting races are anything but decided. Searchlight’s popular Bob Dylan origin picture, A Complete Unknown upset favored Brutalist star Adrien Brody with a Outstanding Lead Actor win for Timothee Chalamet who has lost to the latter all season at Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA, but now has his first SAG win which could prove prescient just when it counts. And SAG also is foretelling a real contest for Outstanding Lead Actress with Demi Moore bouncing back with a key win to add to her Globe and Critics Choice victories over Anora’s Mikey Madison who in the past week shocked with a BAFTA win over Moore, and then Saturday’s triumph at Indie Spirits. With the genuine wildcard being Golden Globe Drama Actress winner Fernanda Torres of Brazil’s I’m Still Here we have a nail biter in the category although you have to give Moore the edge, but it is slight right now. Again, no measurable momentum is coming out of Sunday’s SAG wins as Oscar voting has been over for five days, but we have to listen to what it is telling us about one of the more intriguing Oscar seasons in a very long time. Look for my final Oscar winner predictions coming on Thursday.

As for the TV side, a sweep in Drama Series for Shogun, plus wins for Baby Reindeer’s Jessica Gunning and Hacks star Jean Smart are just more Emmy deja vu moments. However the biggest shock of the night was the near sweep in comedy categories for Hulu’s perennial loser, Only Murders In The Building taking wins for the absent Martin Short and for Outstanding Cast of a Comedy Series. And clearly we will be seeing Colin Farell at the Emmys for The Penguin with a major SAG win to add to his growing list.

The SAG broadcast, now on Netflix for the second year running, was a smooth and entertaining affair punctuated by Jane Fonda’s lively and inspiring acceptance for her Life Achievement Award, and some great bits from host Kristen Bell including a terrific musical number highlighting the 2025 nominees first acting roles. Fun night and easy to navigate downtown traffic to get into the parking garage (a big plus!). A win for SAG (and full disclosure: a guild I was honored to join this Fall).