At least according to Billboard’s breakdown of Luminate data, U.S. CD sales have declined substantially to this point in 2024. Photo Credit: Mick Haupt
It’s a tale of two CD sales stats: Luminate is pointing to a 19.1% year-over-year falloff in the format’s stateside units moved – a stark contrast to the 3.3% YoY units-sold growth attached to the same category for H1 2024 by the RIAA.
The data discrepancy has entered the media spotlight on the heels of Billboard’s removal of Luminate-powered vinyl sales figures. And that step arrived against the backdrop of a DMN Pro investigation into vinyl’s 33.3% year-over-year commercial slip in the States as (previously) displayed on Billboard.
Our latest weekly report explores the apparent controversy (complete with disagreements between Billboard and Luminate notwithstanding their shared corporate ownership) surrounding the figure. Meanwhile, the episode is casting doubt upon U.S. sales figures and the precise status of the “vinyl comeback” that’s so often touted.
Now, with the vinyl debate far from settled, additional questions are being raised on the CD side – in part because of Billboard’s present breakdown of the format’s U.S. sales.
According to the appropriate Luminate-based resource’s “Album Consumption Units By Format” section, CD sales in the category have numbered 22.2 million during 2024, down 19.1% year over year from 2023’s 27.4 million.
And while overall album sales (including standalone digital products as well as album- and track-equivalent units) have suffered an even more pronounced YTD falloff, per the resource, the physical dip is especially significant.
This is largely due to how it differs from the RIAA’s initially mentioned H1 2024 data. According to the latter half-year summary, which calculates physical sales’ worth at estimated retail value, 16.8 million CDs were sold in the States between January and June of 2024. That’s up 3.3% YoY from 16.2 million, with a smaller 0.3% bump on the value front ($236 million to $236.7 million).
Of course, those improvements, though modest, are a lot more positive than the nearly 20% YoY sales decrease identified by Billboard’s analysis of Luminate data.
What, then, are the reasons for the discrepancy? There are several components to the multifaceted question’s answer, but at the top level, Luminate’s much-publicized methodology changes should be reiterated.
To the dismay of the indie retail community, those changes went into effect at the top of 2024 and, in practice, allegedly booted a substantial portion of locally owned record stores’ sales data from calculations.
The revamped tracking system was altered in late April – a point also covered in DMN Pro’s deep dive into the subject – and unknowns remain about how exactly the methodology pivots are affecting both data comparisons and Luminate’s actual 2024 figures.
As described by a disclaimer from Billboard, Luminate’s methodology maneuvering “more accurately represents the independent retail market,” but nevertheless means there’s “not available comparable historical data to provide an accurate year-over-year trend regarding physical sales, including vinyl.”
Following that idea to its logical conclusion, at least through the current year’s end, it’d seemingly be advisable to continue reporting and collecting sales data without attempting to illustrate YoY trends. Furthermore, other pertinent questions remain: What’s happening to the physical sales that are seemingly failing to register or, alternatively, what do the smaller-but-more-accurate figures mean for historical data?
Consequently, it’ll be interesting to see whether the relevant stats join their vinyl counterparts in being removed, perhaps temporarily, from Billboard’s “Market Watch” data.