A Shakeup In Oscar Race, An Emmy Repeat

Last night’s two top Golden Globe winners, Netflix’s Emilia Perez and A24’s three and a half hour epic drama The Brutalist, were also big winners in terms of Oscars momentum. The former won Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical Globe along with three other victories from a record ten nominations. The latter took the all-important Best Motion Picture – Drama Globe and two other major awards including Best Actor-Drama for Adrien Brody and Best Director for Brady Corbet.

The first big test of strength in the two-month stretch to the March 2nd Academy Awards, last night’s Globes results are impressive and perhaps indicative that either Emilia Perez or The Brutalist will be the ultimate Best Picture Oscar winner. That is if they can ride this horse for another eight weeks.

You got that feeling from the ever-so-lively after party Netflix threw at Spago where spirits were running high for Emilia Perez, which the streamer wisely picked up after its Cannes premiere and now may have its best shot yet for a Best Picture Oscar. But there is still a long road ahead.

If you are Best Picture nominees Conclave which took only Screenplay, Wicked which won for Cinematic and Boxoffice Achievement, The Substance which picked up Best Actress – Drama for Demi Moore, A Real Pain which won Best Supporting Actor for Kieran Culkin, or Challengers which won Original Music Score, take heart. It’s not over. Since 2010, with not just one but two Best Picture categories, the Golden Globes failed to match Oscar’s ultimate Best Picture winner a whopping seven times. Throw in Globe Best Picture nominees this year that got completely blanked like A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, September 5, and Cannes Palme d’Or winner Anora, that adds up to a 50% chance that some movie other than Emilia Perez or The Brutalist will land in the final winner’s circle on March 2nd at the Dolby.

Since 2010 the list of Oscar Best Picture winners that did not also do the same at the Globes included that year’s The King’s Speech, 2014’s Birdman, 2015’s Spotlight, 2017’s The Shape Of Water, 2019’s Parasite, 2021’s CODA, and 2022’s Everything Everywhere All At Once.

In other words the race to Oscar that just started in earnest last night did not end last night, but is just getting its mojo as 2024 seems particularly a year of uncertainty. This week we will be getting major guild nominations from the DGA, PGA, SAG, and WGA. Voting will continue until Friday for next Sunday’s big awards extravaganza, the Critics Choice Awards, plus various critics groups will be holding their banquets, and -most significantly – Oscar nomination balloting will begin on Wednesday and run through January 12.

So what do tonight’s Golden Globe results tell us about where the Oscar winds could be blowing, or how they might help them blow? First, the reinvigorated Globes clearly got a huge industry tune in, whether in person or watching at home. That creates momentum, and there is no question Emilia Perez’s very French and very charming Jacques Audiard continues to win admirers despite not speaking a word of English in his acceptance speeches. And Brutalist director Brady Corbet’s gentle chastizing of the industry for not instantly jumping on board a three and a half hour epic with intermission about architecture among other topics was cleverly capped with a mic drop closer of “have a good night”. Certainly he did. Will this have some influence at a key time for Oscar voters, and are these movies with a European sensibility in one way or another going to resonate with the industry? Time is going to tell , and no question in this still wide open year momentum could – or could not – shift quickly.

Unquestionably in my book the two wins that will most directly benefit immediately from their Globe victories were the two lead actresses. In a very competitive category Demi Moore’s triumph as Best Actress – Musical or Comedy in the wildly inventive horror comedy, The Substance, struck a nerve with a performance that will certainly register with other actors in a business where appearance can be everything. Her eloquent and pointed acceptance noting her long awardless career, and that she was once considered just a “popcorn” actress, probably clinched her one of those very valuable Best Actress Oscar nominations in a category that is overflowing with genuine contenders. The same can be said for Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres pulling off a surprise win ( although I predicted it) for Walter Salles’ penetrating and political Brazilian drama, I’m Still Here. At the very least it will compel voters to catch this tremendous performance before casting their ballots this week. Moore and Torres are the ones to watch right now with real momentum, and for that they can thank the Globes.

Other notable wins include Latvia’s magical Flow for Best Animated Feature continuing its run of precursor awards in the category, and besting – among others – the year’s number one movie, Inside Out 2 and Dreamwork’s rapturously reviewed The Wild Robot. The bad news for the latter two films might be that they came out the same year as Flow which is a film, if watched, probably builds to an Oscar win as a real underdog, or should I say, undercat. Disney and Universal have their work cut out for them to prevent that outcome. On the way out of the Hilton I ran into Disney’s Alan Bergman who told me he could not understand how a movie like Inside Out 2 with its overwhelming boxoffice success could not have won. Dreamworks is probably wondering the same thing for their much celebrated film. It’s clearly a banner year for animation.

It also appears to me that the Globes may also signal a run-of-the-board type result in supporting categories for both Culkin and Emilia Perez’s Zoe Saldana. Just a hunch. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s pulsating Globe winning score for Challengers also looks to have no serious challengers in its way to victory after this first win at the Globes.

On the television side of things there is simply no other way to put this, the Golden Globe voters watched the Emmys and that was all she wrote. Shogun with four wins, Baby Reindeer with two, and Hacks with two, Jodie Foster, and yet another Globe win for The Bear’s Jeremy Allen White ( who didn’t even bother to show up this time) just simply repeated what they did in September at the Emmys. In past years the Globes often would be the show leading the way for tv. Here they were uncharacteristically falling in line with what the Television Academy has already done. Only Colin Farrell’s Actor in a Limited Series win for The Penguin broke the mold against shows already crowned by Emmy.

As for the Globes themselves, I didn’t see them at home on tv so not sure how that played, but it is always fun to attend and I have to say post-pandemic, post-strikes, post-scandals, this one felt like Hollywood had forgiven and was ready to party once again back at the stalwart Globes home of the packed Beverly Hilton ballroom. The energy on the carpet was palpable, if not the same in the room which only came alive occasionally such as when Moore won. Also the way the presenters were, uh, presented, with their backs to most of the audience and trying to read teleprompters, awkwardly in many cases, just felt disconnected and an odd choice that shouldn’t be repeated. On the bright side Nikki Glaser was a sunny and funny host who did her job. She should be back.

There is no rest now, not for a moment even for the winners. The next week is likely to be the most important one in this long season now just heating up and ready to rumble. Hold on.