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NASA recently discovered that there is an asteroid out there that now has the highest probability to impact Earth of any known large space rock. NASA says asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1.2% chance of slamming into Earth and “no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%.”
NASA analysis pegs the date of this possible collision between asteroid 2024 YR4, which is rated at Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, and Earth as Dec. 22, 2032. The space organization was also quick to point out “there is about a 99% chance” the giant space rock will not impact Earth.
“2024 YR4 was first reported on Dec. 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center – the international clearing house for small-body positional measurements – by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile,” explained Molly L. Wasser, Outreach Coordinator – NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
“The asteroid, which is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, caught astronomers’ attention when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on Dec. 31, 2024. The Sentry list includes any known near-Earth asteroids that have a non-zero probability of impacting Earth in the future.”
According to Live Science, should 2024 YR4 slam into Earth it would “release about 8 megatons of energy upon impact — more than 500 times that of the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan.”
The European Space Agency (ESA) Planetary Defence Office also issued its own statement about 2024 YR4. In it, they wrote that “two UN-endorsed international asteroid response groups are considering their next steps.”
The ESA added, “If appropriate, IAWN [International Asteroid Warning Network] would develop a strategy to assist world governments in the analysis of asteroid impact consequences and in the planning of any necessary mitigation responses.”
ESA also estimates that the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 may impact Earth on 22 December 2032 is 1.2%, which they say “is consistent with independent estimates made by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and NEODyS.”
“An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region,” the ESA said in its statement. “As a result, the object rose to the top of ESA’s asteroid risk list. Since early January, astronomers have been carrying out priority follow-up observations using telescopes around the world and using the new data to improve our understanding of the asteroid’s size and trajectory.”