Streaming Plateau is Here, Goldman Sachs Report Confirms

Goldman Sachs has long had a bullish outlook on the global music industry, but its latest ‘Music in the Air’ report reveals the investment bank wildly overestimated recorded music and streaming revenues for 2024. The overestimate has prompted a notable downgrade in its future forecasts—the streaming plateau is here.

Goldman Sachs initially projected a robust 7.6% global music industry growth rate for 2024. However, the actual growth rate clocked in at 6.2%—marking the first time in years that the sector failed to meet the bank’s expectations. The most glaring shortfall in this report was in recorded music. Goldman Sachs forecasted an 8.9% year-on-year increase, but the real figure was only 4.8%—a miss of over four percentage points.

This underperformance is confirmed by IFPI data and has reflected in the broader slowdown, especially the streaming segment. Goldman Sachs predicted a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for streaming between 2024 and 2030, but has now revised this figure down to 7.9%. The most dramatic adjustment comes in ad-supported streaming—where growth rates have plateaued. Growth forecasts for that segment were slashed from 11.3% down to just 5.7% for 2024.

Meanwhile, subscription streaming projections for 2025 were cut from $33 billion to $31.3 billion. Ad-supported streaming also got a forecast downgraded by $2.1 billion to $11.3 billion. As a result of these misses, Goldman Sachs has slashed its future forecasts for recorded music revenue forecasts across the board.

The 2025 projection was cut from $33.9 billion down to $31.4 billion, with growth rates for 2025 and 2025 now expected at 5.8% and 6.6% respectively. That’s down from the previous expected rates of 8.8% (2025) and 8.4% (2026). The bank’s long-term outlook for the sector has also been tempered, it now anticipates a 6.8% CAGR for the global music market through 2030—down from 7.5%.

While the report for streaming and recorded music revenue is a disappointing one, not all segments of the music industry delivered disappointment. Live music and physical sales of CDs and vinyl outperformed or met expectations. That’s mostly due to superfans and resilient demand for physical music. Music publishing remained stable with forecasts unchanged at $10.7 billion for 2025.

This report underscores a pivotal moment for the music industry. After years or rapid expansion, growth is slowing, particularly in the recorded music and streaming markets. The bank’s overestimation has led to a more cautious and realistic outlook—with future projections now reflecting the sector’s evolving dynamics and challenges as the digital landscape matures.