Following indications of a subscriber growth plateau, new data is pointing to an outright decline in stateside Spotify Individual subscribers. Photo Credit: Kojo Kwarteng
Following numerous signs of a paid-streaming plateau, new data is shedding light on an even more troubling trend: Outright subscriber declines in the world’s largest music market.
That data comes from DMN Pro, which has now provided multiple in-depth looks during 2024 at the hard numbers behind the U.S. streaming space. Earlier in December, one of those breakdowns revealed a decrease in overall domestic subscribers for Amazon Music, which still charges Prime members $9.99 monthly for Individual.
But it turns out the stateside subscribership dip, far from solely hitting Amazon Music, is further impacting today’s biggest on-demand music service. As explored in DMN Pro’s latest weekly report, Spotify Individual subscribers totaled 23.96 million in September 2024.
The total is up about 300,000 from September 2023 but represents a falloff of almost 431,000 subs from February 2024. Of course, it’s difficult to draw concrete conclusions from the development, particularly against the backdrop of a rapidly diversifying streaming sector.
However, the trend is worth noting heading into the new year, particularly as the majors plot strategies to meet longer-term subscription-revenue growth targets.
History and logic underscore that price increases (and royalty-calculation recalibrations) are among the more readily accessible means of pursuing the goals. With that said, as Spotify now charges $11.99 monthly for Individual in the States – up from $9.99 in the not-so-distant past and still above Apple Music’s $10.99 price – the timing hardly appears right for yet another U.S. bump.
Nevertheless, other monetization-minded options are definitely on the table. While there’s seemingly little near-term wiggle room for a fresh Spotify Individual price boost, Family is a different story.
Earlier in 2024, Warner Music head Robert Kyncl rather directly expressed a desire to bolster the multi-user package’s revenue potential in one way or another. And notwithstanding Individual’s decline, Spotify managed to add around 2.67 million U.S. subscribers (not subscriptions) across September 2023 and September 2024, per DMN Pro estimates.
Then there’s Spotify’s ongoing advertising buildout and an already-confirmed “Deluxe” tier. It’s unclear when the latter, one component of an increasingly aggressive superfan focus, will roll out. But it’ll reportedly include a long-rumored audio-quality upgrade, a collection of AI tools, and more, with a price point of closer to $18 per month, according to Spotify CEO Daniel Ek.
Whatever the new year holds on this front, it should be highlighted that Spotify itself remains relatively insulated from discussions pertaining to the majors’ subscription-growth slowdowns. Still adding subs (albeit mainly in markets where ARPU is often lower), the service is diversifying well beyond music and leaving no savings stone unturned amid a newfound emphasis on profitability.
Even after factoring for a recent price slip, Spotify stock (NYSE: SPOT) is up 141% on the year at $454 per share. The corresponding market cap, $91.2 billion, is almost twice as large as that of Universal Music Group (UMG on the Euronext Amsterdam).