I promise, I’m coming at this from a friendly place. I’m sorry I called you an idiot in the headline, that was uncalled for. This isn’t an excuse to scream at you like an unhinged, verified X user with a Plato profile pic. It is, though, valuable to know these common logical fallacies so you can spot them in yourself or in others.
One warning: It’s practically a fallacy in itself to think you’ll win an argument by pointing out that someone else is succumbing to a logical fallacy.
Gambler’
s Fallacy
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This is one of the most prevalent fallacies, and also probably one of the hardest ones to shake, mainly because to truly understand it means accepting some statistical knowledge that goes against the guttiest of gut feelings.
The base of the gambler’s fallacy is believing that “things are going to turn around for you.” Dark, right? They’re not called logical pleasantries, buddy. The classic example, that gives the fallacy its name, is that when someone is on a long losing streak, “statistically” they have to start winning soon. In reality, each roll of the dice exists in a vacuum. For example, you’ve been playing your lucky number in roulette all night, and it still hasn’t hit, plunking down another chip because your daughter’s birthday is “bound to come up”. Not really. You’re betting on the same 1 in 38 chance you’ve bet on, every single spin, all night. Keep doing it, and she’ll have to start looking at trade schools.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
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The sunk-cost fallacy is based on the idea that once people have invested a resource, whether it’s money or time, in something, they feel an obligation to finish it rather than admit they wasted those resources.
For example, say you see a particularly incredible looking pastry on Instagram. It looks perfectly flaky and buttery, and to top it all off, it’s shaped like a little frog fishing in a pond. How can you pass that up? When you finally show up, spend 30 minutes in line and fork over 12 hard earned dollars for this edible amphibian-looking baked good, though? By the second bite you know it’s nothing more than eye candy, because it’s definitely not mouth candy. It tastes like rancid banana peels with a worse texture. But even though it tastes like something most rats would pass up, you still force the rest of that putrid little froggy down your throat because those 30 minutes and 12 bucks need to add up to something.
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
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The delightful name for this fallacy comes from a visual tale that serves as a learning aid. Imagine a so-called sharpshooter unloading his revolver into the side of a barn. Then, walking over and painting a bull’s-eye around each of those six already-fired shots. If you show up late, you might be impressed at his deadeye, instead of knowing he’s a total idiot.
The fallacy operates on the same idea, of “drawing your own bull’s-eye” around similar data and ignoring context that doesn’t back you or your idea up. It’s the same idea as the less catchy “correlation does not mean causation.” Let’s say you want to prove a hotel room is haunted, and you interview each guest leaving. They all complain of creaks, strange noises and scratching in the walls. Well, well, well, looks like Room 13 is haunted, huh? Except that if you’d talked to the guests from rooms on the other side of the hotel, they would have told you about the same thing, exposing the truth: This is just a really shitty hotel with old pipes and a rat problem.
No True Scotsman Fallacy
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Two fun, geographic fallacies in a row! What a treat. The name comes from an equally delightful half-example, half-joke. As it goes, one man claims that no Scotsman would ever put sugar on his porridge. The other immediately names a Scotsman who does put sugar on his porridge. A fact waved off by the first with the declaration, “No true Scotsman would ever put sugar on his porridge.”
This fallacy comes up more than you might think, especially given how much of the modern news cycle is discrediting specific people. Need a modern example that pops up pretty much every day, even using practically pitch-perfect language? Keep an eye out for the phrase “True American.” Honestly, we should probably make that the new official name.
The Fallacy Fallacy
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This weirdly-named, poorly SEO-optimized fallacy refers to the fact that, just because an argument is fallacious, doesn’t mean the conclusion isn’t true. Let’s say your friend has only ever seen red Corvettes, and he’s insistent, as you brunch at an outdoor patio, that Corvettes only come in red. Is he stupid? Probably a bit. At the same time, if, as proof he asked you to bet $1,000 that the next Corvette you see is red, would you take that bet?
If the answer is no, congrats on dodging the fallacy fallacy. Because it very well COULD be. Then he’s not only insufferable, but up a cool grand.