Joker: Folie à Deux looks poised to be become one of the biggest box office flops in history, according to projections from industry insiders.
A new report in Variety estimates Todd Phillips’ sequel could lose Warner Bros. up to $200 million during its theatrical run. Thus far, the Joaquin Phoenix-starring film has grossed $51.5 million domestically and $165 million globally during its first two weeks in theaters. Its total gross is projected to be $65 million domestically and $210 million to $215 million globally.
According to the report, Folie à Deux cost $200 million to produce, with an additional $100 million going to marketing and distribution. With ticket sales split between studios and theater owners, it would thus need to gross $450 million to break even during its theatrical run (though Warner Bros. sources contend the number is $375 million).
Per insider estimates and three rival executives familiar with similar films, Joker 2 could lose between $125 million and $200 million before it hits digital platforms on October 29th and physical media (pre-order here) on December 17th. If that proves accurate, it would rank among the biggest box office bombs in history alongside films like John Carter, The Marvels, The Lone Ranger, and Mortal Engines, each of which lost $200 million or more.
It’s worth noting Warner Bros. has pushed back against these projections. “Any estimates suggested by anonymous ‘insiders’ or ‘rival executives’ are grossly wrong and continues a trend where rumor is reported as fact,” a spokesperson said in a statement. “The film continues to play in theatrical release, included with this week’s opening in China, and will continue to earn revenue throughout its home viewing and ancillary run.”
Part of the production costs were the upfront fees granted to Phillips and Phoenix ($20 million each) after the success of the first Joker movie, as well as Lady Gaga’s $12 million salary
Warner Bros. went all in on Joker: Folie à Deux after 2019’s Joker grossed over $1 billion worldwide and earned a pair of Academy Awards. However, its sequel has fallen well short of expectations with an aggregate 33% score on Rotten Tomatoes while also making history as the first comic book movie to earn a D grade from CinemaScore.
In our review of Joker: Folie à Deux, Senior Entertainment Editor Liz Shannon Miller praised the performances of Phoenix and Lady Gaga, but ultimately concluded the film “proves to be a muddled love story that falls apart due to its inability to express anything thematically substantial or original.”